TIP702: Hedging Against Market Crashes w/ Kris Sidial

In this episode, Preston and Matthew dive deep into Bitcoin’s design, its ability to protect financial autonomy, and the macroeconomic trends shaping its value. Matthew breaks down Bitcoin price models, stock-to-flow analysis, and the role of global liquidity. They also explore the impact of Layer-2 solutions and make bold predictions about Bitcoin’s future in global finance. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:47 - Why Bitcoin serves as an "escape hatch" from centralized financial instability 04:34 - How Bitcoin’s design ensures individual financial autonomy in a digital world 06:26 - What historical economic patterns suggest about Bitcoin’s resilience 13:47 - The most overlooked factors in Bitcoin valuation and price modeling 18:48 - How stock-to-flow holds up today and alternative valuation frameworks 20:39 - Key metrics for tracking global liquidity and Bitcoin’s role as a store of value 28:38 - The significance of macro liquidity and its effect on Bitcoin’s adoption 31:38 The impact of Layer-2 scaling solutions on Bitcoin’s liquidity 43:44 - How Bitcoin’s fixed supply interacts with the need for liquidity in a digital economy 44:12 - A bold 10-year prediction for Bitcoin’s role in reshaping global finance Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Porkopolis Economics website. Matthew's X Account. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Netsuite SimpleMining CFI Education Unchained Hardblock Found Fintool The Bitcoin Way Shopify Vanta Onramp PrizePicks TurboTax Fundrise Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

On today’s show, Stig Brodersen talks with co-host William Green, the author of “Richer, Wiser, Happier.” In their quest for meaningful relationships and being the best version of themselves, they discuss what has made them Richer, Wiser, or Happier in the past quarter. You’re invited to join them on their journey. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:51 - What makes you go weak and go strong.  01:51 - Why emotions can be real but not true. 22:03 - How to let go of experiences you would rather forget. 01:03:37 - How to attract the right people into your life. 01:17:47 - How to forge relationships inside and outside of the value investing community. 01:34:29 - Why should your default be to help other people, but ironically also to constantly say no. 01:35:58 - What William and Stig have read the last quarter that made them Richer, Wiser, and Happier. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. William Green’s book Richer, Wiser, Happier. Stig Brodersen and William Green’s episode on being Richer, Wiser, and Happier, Q4 2024. Stig Brodersen and William Green’s episode on being Richer, Wiser, and Happier, Q3 2024. Stig Brodersen and William Green’s episode on being Richer, Wiser, and Happier, Q1 2024. Stig Brodersen and William Green’s episode on being Richer, Wiser, and Happier, Q3 2023. Stig Brodersen and William Green’s episode on being Richer, Wiser, and Happier, Q2 2023. Stig Brodersen and William Green’s episode on being Richer, Wiser, and Happier, Q1 2023. William’s interview with Terry Smith. William’s interview with Arnold Van Den Berg. William’s interview with Tsoknyi Rinpoche and Daniel Goleman. Stig and Preston’s episode on The Speed of Trust. Daniel Goleman’s book, Emotional Intelligence. David Hawkins’ book, Power Vs. Force. David Hawkins’ book, The Eye of the I. Robert M. Pirsig’s Book, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Tara Bennett-Goleman’s book, Emotional Alchemy. Stephen Covey’s book, The Speed of Trust. Pico Iyer’s book, Aflame. Email Shawn at shawn@theinvestorspodcast.com to attend our free events in Omaha or visit this page. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Netsuite SimpleMining CFI Education Unchained Hardblock Found Fintool The Bitcoin Way Shopify Vanta Onramp PrizePicks TurboTax Fundrise HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

In this episode, Preston and Paolo discuss Tether’s massive $13.7 billion profit, its growing strategic importance, and whether Wall Street banks will enter the stablecoin space. They also explore Tether’s expansion into AI, real estate, and Brain-Computer Interfaces, alongside its big move to El Salvador. They also discuss what running Tether on Lightning means for payments and the future of tokenized assets in the UAE. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:05 - How Tether achieved $13.7 billion in profits last year. 07:14 - Why Wall Street banks might try to compete in the stablecoin space. 13:11 - The impact of running Tether on the Lightning Network via TAP. 20:07 - Challenges and opportunities in Lightning Network routing. 22:04 - The future of tokenized equity in the UAE and global accessibility. 30:18 - Tether’s massive move to El Salvador and its 70-story building project. 33:32 - How Tether is expanding into AI with DeepSeek and open-source solutions. 35:11 - The role of Reelly Tech in real estate transactions. 41:25 - Why Tether invested $200M in Blackrock Neurotech and its AI SDK strategy. 47:15 - How all these moves fit into Tether’s long-term vision. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Article on How Tether Achieved $13.7 Billion in Profits Last Year. Article on Tether on the Lightning Network.  Article on Tether’s move to El Salvador.  Paolo’s X Account. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Netsuite SimpleMining CFI Education Unchained Hardblock Found Fintool The Bitcoin Way Shopify Vanta Onramp PrizePicks TurboTax Fundrise Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve discusses the book Against The Gods and how risk has evolved over history, why risk management was deeply routed in gambling, how the insurance industry was launched, revolutionary learnings on risk from brilliant historical figures, how regression was formulated and how it tricks investors, the two economists who upended utility theory, the powerful concept of prospect theory and how it showed how irrational humans are, and much more! IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 06:52 - Why a human “calculator” can’t win in the market, and the key skills that drive investing success. 08:54 - The two critical risk concepts Cardano introduced to beat the odds—still useful for investors today. 11:12 - How Pascal and Fermat cracked the ‘problem of points’ and laid the groundwork for market probability models. 15:09 - How Daniel Bernoulli connected intuition with measurement. 20:24 - How Bayes’ rule transformed probability theory. 25:55 - Why focusing on the downside matters most—especially when the market is euphoric. 26:33 - How regression to the mean distorts our view of performance—and tricks investors into bad decisions. 38:47 - Why diversification can sometimes increase risk. 43:49 - How prospect theory rewrote the rules of decision-making—explaining why investors act irrationally. 52:01 - Why investors cling to bad ideas—how biases and ego can sabotage returns. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy a copy of Against The Gods here. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Netsuite SimpleMining CFI Education Unchained Hardblock Found Fintool The Bitcoin Way Shopify Vanta Onramp PrizePicks TurboTax Fundrise HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Lyn Alden to discuss fiscal dominance and its implications for investors. While many value investors claim that following the macro environment isn’t all that important, Lyn makes the compelling case that fiscal dominance has a considerable impact on financial markets overall. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:03 - What fiscal dominance is and why it matters. 08:39 - Why the S&P 500 is at all-time highs with the backdrop of higher interest rates. 11:36 - Whether Lyn expects US big tech to continue to outperform. 19:05 - How the US will continue to run large fiscal deficits. 28:55 - Why nothing stops the fiscal dominance train. 36:20 - Where we are at in the liquidity cycle. 41:08 - How to invest during a period of fiscal dominance. 55:19 - Lyn’s three major trends to never fade. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Lyn’s book: Broken Money. Lyn’s blog and X account. Email Shawn at shawn@theinvestorspodcast.com to attend our free events in Omaha or visit this page. Follow Clay on Twitter. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Netsuite SimpleMining CFI Education Unchained Hardblock Found Fintool The Bitcoin Way Shopify Vanta Onramp PrizePicks TurboTax Fundrise HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm